Curriculum Vitae

Last updated: February 2016

EDUCATION

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION

Applied Macroeconomics, Economic Growth and Technological Progress, Labor market dynamics, Econometrics, Price setting and price measurement.

EMPLOYMENT

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
  • Senior Research Advisor, June 2010 - August 2015.
  • Research Advisor, Economic Research, September 2008 – May 2010.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
  • Research Officer, Research and Statistics Group, June 2006 – September 2008.
  • Senior Economist, Research and Statistics Group, May 2004 – June 2006.
  • Economist, Research and Statistics Group, September 2000 – May 2004.
OTHER AFFILIATIONS
TEACHING
  • Lecturer at Undergraduate Level, UC BERKELEY, January 2013 - May 2015.
  • Econ 141: Econometric Analysis, Spring 2014, Fall 2014, Spring 2015.
  • Econ 140: Economic Statistics and Econometrics, Spring 2013.
    • Advanced Macroeconomics (MA)
    • International Economics (BA)
    • Econometrics II (PhD), Spring 2007.
  • Macroeconomic Theory (MA), Spring 2002-Spring 2008 (Classes in Spring and Fall).
  • Intermediate Macroeconomics, Summer 1999.
  • Principles of Macroeconomics, Summer 1998.
  • Principles of Microeconomics, Summer 1997.
  • Introduction to Econometrics, Fall 1996.

OTHER SERVICE

RESEARCH

Citations on Google Scholar / IDEAS page

Academic Publications

Note: All title-links are to the latest working paper version of a publication. The journal-link is to the published version. Some journals only provide access to subscribers and, thus, some journal-links might not be available to you.

2016 and forthcoming

Composition and Aggregate Real Wage Growth (with Mary Daly), American Economic Review - AEA Papers and Proceedings, forthcoming.

The Outlook for U.S. Labor Quality Growth (with Canyon Bosler, Mary Daly, and John Fernald), in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, 2016.

The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K.” (with Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Powen She, and Ludo Visschers), European Economic Review, 2016, vol 84(C), 18-41.

2015

On the Importance of the Participation Margin for Labor Market Fluctuations” (with Michael Elsby and Ayșegül Șahin), Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 72, May 2015, 64–82.
Additional materials: Replication files (20Mb)

2014

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve” (with Mary Daly), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 46(s2), 51-93.
Prepared for Boston Fed conference on "Fulfilling the Full Employment Mandate", April 12-13, 2013.

Additional materials: Slides
Press coverage: Krugman blog (1) Krugman blog (2) Businessweek, Economist, STL Post-Dispatch, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Washington Post, MSN, Businessweek, FD (Dutch), Economist. WSJ (blog), NY Times (blog),

The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share” (with Michael Elsby, and Ayșegül Șahin), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2013, 1-51.
Additional materials: Slides replication files

Press coverage: Bloomberg, Slate, Business Insider, Economist (1), U.S. News, Economist, Bloomberg, WSJ (opinion), Economist (2)

2013

Beveridge Curve Shifts Across Countries Since the Great Recession” (with Ayșegül Șahin), IMF Economic Review, 2013, 61, 566-600.
Prepared for IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference - November 8-9, 2012.

Additional materials: Replication files, Slides
Press coverage: Financial Times

Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD” (with Michael Elsby and Ayșegül Șahin), Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95, 530-548.
Additional materials: Replication file

Firms and Flexibility” (with Ayşegül Şahin), Economic Inquiry, 2013, 51, 922-940.

2012

A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?” (with Mary Daly, Ayșegül Șahin, and Rob Valletta), Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26, Summer 2012, 3-26.

Which Industries Are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?” (with Regis Barnichon, Michael Elsby, and Ayșegül Șahin), Monthly Labor Review, June 2012, 25-37. Prepared for the JOLTS Symposium at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 10th 2010.

2011

The Labor Market and the Great Recession: An Update to September 2011” (with Michael Elsby, Ayșegül Șahin, and Rob Valletta), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2011, 353-369.
Additional materials: Slides Replication files
Press coverage: Economist (1), Economist (2), NYT blog, Economist (3)

CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index” (with Stefano Eusepi and Andrea Tambalotti), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3(3), 53-91.
Additional materials: Replication files

2010

Technology Diffusion and Postwar Growth”, (with Diego Comin), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford (eds), 2010, University of Chicago Press.

An Exploration of Technology Diffusion” (with Diego Comin), American Economic Review, 2010, 100, 2031–59.
Additional materials: Online appendix, Replication files
Additional materials: Replication files
Additional materials: Replication files.

2005

Inflation-Inequality in the United States” (with David Lagakos), Review of Income and Wealth, 2005, 51, 581-606.

2004

“Generalizations of the KPSS-Test for Stationarity”, (with Philip Hans Franses and Marius Ooms), Statistica Neerlandica, 2004, 58, 483-502.
Additional materials: Replication files.

Cross-Country Technology Adoption: Making the Theories Face the Facts” (with Diego Comin), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, 39-83. (Prepared for the Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, April 2003)


2003

Another View of Investment: 40 Years Later”, (with Jess Benhabib), in: J.Stiglitz, R.Frydman, M.Woodford, and P.Aghion (eds.), Knowledge, Information and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps, 2003, 522-545, Princeton University Press: Princeton.

2001

The Information Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence”, (with Boyan Jovanovic), American Economic Review, 2001, 91, 1203-1220.

“Are Living Standards Converging?”, (with Philip Hans Franses ), Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2001, 12, 171-200.

Did Trade Liberalization Induce a Structural Break in Imports of Manufactures in Turkey?”, (with Paul de Boer, Ali Bayar, Carlos Martinez, and Teoman Pamukçu), in : R.Kulikowski, Z.Nahorski and J.W.Owsinski (eds.), Modelling of Economic Transition Phenomena, 2001, 198-219. University of Information Technology and Management Press: Warsaw.


2000 and before

“Asymptotically Perfect and Relative Convergence of Productivity”, (with Philip Hans Franses), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2000, 15, 59-81.
Additional materials: Replication files.

“Increasing Seasonal Variation: Unit Roots versus Shifts in Mean and Trend”, (with Philip Hans Franses), Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, 1998, 14, 255-261.

Additional materials: Replication files.

Critical Values for Unit Root Tests in Seasonal Time Series”, (with Philip Hans Franses), Journal of Applied Statistics, 1997, 24, 25-47.

Additional materials: Replication files.

“Structural Models of Factor Demands and Technological Change: An Empirical Assessment of Dynamic Adjustment Specifications for Sectors of the Dutch Economy”, (with Piet Lesuis, Paul de Boer, and Rins Harkema), Economic Systems Research, 1996, 8, 341-360.

Federal Reserve System Publications

What's Up with Wage Growth?” (with Mary Daly and Benjamin Pyle), FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-07, March 7, 2016.
Press coverage: Bloomberg, Deseret News, Washington Post,  

The Stimulative Effect of Redistribution” (with Alexander Nussbacher), FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-21, June 29, 2015.

Press coverage: WSJ (blog)

Majority of Hires Never Report Looking for a Job” (with Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Patryk Perkowski, and Ludo Visschers), FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-10, March 30, 2015.
Press coverage: WSJ (blog)

Why is Wage Growth So Slow?” (with Mary Daly), FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-01, January 5, 2015.
Press coverage: Money
 
The Wage Growth Gap for Recent College Grads” (with Leila Bengali), FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-22, July 21, 2014.
Press coverage: LA Times, Vox, Reuters, Chicago Tribune, WSJ (blog), Sun-Sentinel
 
Career Changes Decline during Recessions” (with Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, and Ludo Visschers), FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-09, October 15, 2014.
Press coverage: Bloomberg

Gauging the Momentum of the Labor Recovery” (with Mary Daly, and Benjamin Bradshaw), FRBSF Economic Letter 2013-30, October 15, 2013.
Press coverage: Businessweek, Reuters, WSJ (blog)

The Path of Wage Growth and Unemployment” (with Mary Daly, and Timothy Ni), FRBSF Economic Letter 2013-20, July 15, 2013.
Press coverage: Bloomberg

Will the Jobless Rate Drop take a Break?” (with Mary Daly, Early Elias, and Oscar Jorda), FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-37, December  17, 2012.

Commodity Prices and PCE Inflation” (with Galina Hale and Rachna Raina), FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-14, May 7, 2012.

Why Has Wage Growth Stayed Strong?” (with Mary Daly and Brian Lucking), FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-10, April 2, 2012.
Additional materials: FRBSF Wage Rigidity Meter
Press coverage: Krugman blog, NYTimes


Cap Rates and Commercial Property Prices” (with John Krainer and David Lang) FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-29, September 19, 2011.
Press coverage: Housing Wire

The U.S. Content of 'Made in China'” (with Galina Hale), FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-25, August 8, 2011.
Press coverage: CNNWSJ blog, Krugman blog, Economist, NYTimes, Japan Times, Atlanta Journal Constitution, The Diplomat, Sydney Morning Herald, Bloomberg, USA Today, LA Times

Recent College Graduates and the Labor Market” (with Colin Gardiner and Theodore Wiles), FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-09, March 21, 2011.
Press coverage: CNBC, WSJ blog, Economist, NYTimes The Onion wrote a spoof on this in which they made up a quote and attributed it to me

Do Initial Claims Overstate Layoffs?” (with Ayşegül Şahin), FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-04, February 7, 2011.

The Breadth of Disinflation” (with Colin Gardiner), FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-36, December 6, 2010.
Additional materials: monthly release page
Press coverage: Economist

Labor Force Participation and the Future Path of Unemployment” (with Mary Daly and Joyce Kwok), FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-27, September 13, 2010.
Press coverage: Economist(1), Economist (2)

The Housing Drag on Core Inflation” (with Stefano Eusepi and Andrea Tambalotti), FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-11, April 5, 2010.

Bart Hobijn, page 4 of 6
Press coverage: WSJ

Okun’s Law and the Unemployment Surprise of 2009” (with Mary Daly), FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-07, March 8, 2010.

The Unemployment Gender Gap During the 2007 Recession” (with Ayşegül Şahin and Joseph Song), Current Issues in Economics and Finance, February 2010, volume 16, number 2.

Do Alternative Measures of GDP Affect its Interpretation?” (with Charles Steindel), Current Issues in Economics and Finance, November 2009, volume 15, number 7.

Jobless Recovery Redux?” (with Mary Daly and Joyce Kwok), FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-18, June 5, 2009.

Labor Supply Responses to Changes in Wealth and Credit” (with Mary Daly and Joyce Kwok), FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-05, January 30, 2009.

The Tech Pulse Index: Recent Trends in Tech-Sector Activity,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-03, January 14, 2009.

Additional materials: monthly release page
Press coverage: WSJ

Commodity Price Movements and PCE Inflation,” Current Issues in Economics and Finance, November 2008, volume 14, number 8.
Press coverage: Krugman blog

What Has Homeland Security Cost? An Assessment: 2001 – 2005” (with Erick Sager), Current Issues in Economics and Finance, February 2007, volume 13, number 2.

U.S. Jobs Gained and Lost through Trade: A Net Measure” (with Erica Groshen and Meg McConnell), Current Issues in Economics and Finance, August 2005, volume 11, number 8.

Taking the Pulse of the Tech Sector: A Coincident Index of High-Tech Activity” (with Kevin Stiroh and Alexis Antoniades) Current Issues in Economics and Finance, October 2003, volume 9, number 10.

Social Security and the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly” (with  David Lagakos) Current Issues in Economics and Finance, May 2003, volume 9, number 5

Press coverage: Economist

What Will Homeland Security Cost?Economic Policy Review, November 2002, 8-2, 21-33.

Other publications

"Share of Imports and Commodities in Consumption and Investment in the United States"  (with Galina Hale), in Uncovering Value Added in Trade: New Approaches to Analyzing Global Value Chains (Yuqing Xing, ed.), 2015, 101-112.

Second Discussant Comment on “Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market”  B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 3, article 10.
Discussion of paper in special issue on "Long-Term Effects of the Great Recession"

How Early Adoption Has Increased Wealth—Until Now” (with Diego Comin), Harvard Business Review, 2012, 90(3), 34-35.

Unemployment in the Current Crisis” (with Michael Elsby and Ayșegül Șahin), VOX, February 14 2009.

Convergentie levensstandaard treedt niet op” (with Philip Hans Franses), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 1996, 81, 10-12

Working Papers

Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies (with Dennis Bonam), DNB Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department, Working paper 524, October 2016.

The Intenstive and Extensive Margin of Real Wage Adjustment(with Mary Daly), SF Fed Working Paper 2016-04, March 2016.

The Industry-Occupation Mix of U.S. Job Openings and Hires”, (joint with Patryk Perkowski), SSRN working paper 2858603.
Updated version of SF Fed Working paper 2012-09
Press coverage: WSJ blog, Huffington post

Dissecting Aggregate Real Wage Fluctuations: Individual Wage Growth and the Composition Effect” (with Mary Daly and Theodore Wiles), SF Fed Working Paper 2011-23, September 2011. Latest version May 2012.
Press coverage: WSJ

The Recent Evolution of the Natural Rate of Unemployment” (with Mary Daly and  Rob Valletta), SF Fed Working Paper 2011-05, January 2011.
Rewritten version published as "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Is the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rising?" in the Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Press coverage: WSJ blog, Economist

Household Inflation Experiences in the U.S.: A Comprehensive Approach” (with Kristin Mayer, Cartier Stennis, and Giorgio Topa), SF Fed Working Paper 2009-19, September 2009.

Implementing Technology” (with Diego Comin), NBER Working Paper #12886, February 2007.

Spurious Investment Prices” (with Alisdair McKay), mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Five Facts You Need to Know About Technology Diffusion” (with Diego Comin and Emilie Rovito), NBER Working Paper #11928, January 2006.

On Both Sides of the Quality Bias in Price Indexes”, FRBNY Staff Report #157, December 2002.

Is Equipment Price Deflation a Statistical Artifact?”, FRBNY Staff Report #139, November 2001. (Revised as “Spurious Investment Prices”)

Dataset

The CHAT Dataset” (with Diego Comin), NBER Working Paper #15319, August 2009.
Press coverage: Economist

SEMINARS AND PRESENTATIONS

AEA Meetings 2009, Arizona State University, Banque de France, Bank of England, Brookings Institution, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Carnegie Rochester Conference on Public Policy, Catholic University Louvain-la-Neuve, City University New York, Deutsche Bundesbank, Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung, ECB/IMOP conference, EEA/ESEM, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Erasmus University Rotterdam, ES-NASM, European University Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, International Input-Output Association meeting, International Monetary Fund, London School of Economics, McGill University, Ministry of Economic Affairs (Netherlands), NBER Labor Studies, NBER Economic Growth, NBER Summer Institute, NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth Meeting, New York University, Norges Bank, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Rutgers University, Society for Economic Dynamics, Sveriges Riksbank, Universiteit van Amsterdam, University of California at Davis, University of California at Santa Cruz, University of Edinburgh, University of Maryland, University of Southern California, University of Vigo, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Washington University St. Louis.

Keynote speech on “U.S. Labor Market Dynamics”, Bank of England, October 11, 2012.
Speech on On How the Digital Economy Shapes our Labor Markets", OECD Working Party on the Digital Economy, June 16, 2014.
Speech on The Past, Present and Future of the U.S. Labor Market”, AZHREF, January 21, 2016.
Speech on What's Up with Wage Growth?”, Spinoza Foundation, London, September 12, 2016.
Speech on Workforce Development Benchmarks”, AZ@Work, September 21, 2016.
Speech on The Present and Future of the U.S. Labor Market”, AZHREF, January 18, 2017.

GRANTS

Co-principal investigator of NSF grant SBE-738101 for “Innovation and Technology Implementation: Theory and Policy Implications” (with Diego Comin), August 2007. ($255,587)

Co-principal investigator of NSF grant SES-0742957 for “An Extensive Dataset on Historical Cross-Country Technology Adoption Patterns” (with Diego Comin), July 2005. ($120,297)

Co-principal investigator of NSF grant SES-0517910 for “The New York Research Data Center” (with Neil Bennett, Bob Lipsey, and Erica Groshen), July 2003. ($267,886)

PEER REVIEWING

American Economic Review, Berkeley Economic Press, Economica, Econometrica, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economic Modeling, Economic Systems Research, European Economic Review, International Economic Review, International Finance, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Economic Geography, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Population Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Labour, Labour Economics, Macroeconomic Dynamics, National Science Foundation, Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Oxford Economic Papers, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of Economic Dynamics, Review of Economic Studies, Review of Income and Wealth, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Southern Economic Journal, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.

Member, Review Panel, National Science Foundation, July 2005.

RELATED LINKS

CV in PDF format